Chiar daca e un copy paste, merita citit si postat si aici pe forum, pentru ca ce s-a intamplat cu Uraganul Otis care a devastat Acapulco, nu s-a mai intamplat niciodata. E absolut inexplicabil cum s-au produs asemenea erori in acesti ani si inca un semn cat se poate de clar ca natura pana la urma, e complet imprevizibila.
Forecast errors and distinctions
The intensity of Hurricane Otis was among the most poorly forecast in the modern era. Meteorologists Jeff Masters and Bob Henson at Yale University called the underestimation "one of the biggest and most consequential forecast-model misses of recent years." Numerical weather prediction models failed to capture the magnitude of explosive intensification that occurred, in part due to a dearth of data.[15] Several experts, including director of the National Hurricane Center Michael Brennan, noted that there are very few instruments — such as ocean buoys or radar — available for evaluating hurricane strength in the East Pacific, leaving forecasters reliant on satellite data.[40] As described by the New York Times, forecasts of Otis upon its formation on October 22 "didn’t show much to be concerned about."[23] In their first advisory, the NHC forecast a peak intensity of just 45 mph (75 km/h) with the system moving north-northwest and later west away from the Mexican coastline. Forecasters John Cangialosi and Lisa Buccia noted that many models showed the storm outright dissipating within five days.[11]
Early on October 23, Blake noted that models were incorrectly diagnosing conditions and showing Otis intertwined with the Intertropical Convergence Zone. He adjusted his forecast to show a faster motion which would bring the system onto the Mexican coastline on October 26.[14] Later that day, forecasters Cangialosi and Sandy Delgado noted a substantial disparity in various model solutions, with results differing based on how vertically aligned the storm would become or not become.[41] Conditions for a more potent system became more apparent during the overnight hours of October 23–24. This included high sea surface temperatures, lower wind shear, and abundant moisture. The system also became vertically aligned. The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) rapid intensification index increased to 25 percent, leading forecasters to raise their intensity predictions above most model outputs.[18][23] At 09:00 UTC (4:00 a.m. CDT) on October 24, less than 24 hours before landfall, the NHC expected Otis to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane as it moved ashore.[18] Sixteen hours prior to landfall, the system was forecast to move ashore at least five hours later than it actually did. The dramatic rate of intensification was not apparent until reconnaissance aircraft sampled the storm during the afternoon of October 24.[15] At 00:00 UTC on October 25 (7:00 p.m. CDT, October 24) just 6.5 hours before the storm made landfall, the NHC upgraded Otis to a Category 4 hurricane and explicitly forecast it to become a Category 5 hurricane before making landfall.[22]
The rate of Hurricane Otis' intensification was among the fastest observed in the satellite-era. In a 24-hour period, the hurricane's maximum sustained winds increased by 110 to 115 mph (175 to 185 km/h), ranking it as the third- or second-fastest worldwide. Only Hurricane Patricia in 2015 intensified at a faster rate in the Eastern Pacific, increasing by 120 mph (195 km/h) in the same time.[15] With winds of 165 mph (270 km/h), Otis became the first Pacific hurricane on record to make landfall at Category 5 intensity, surpassing Hurricane Patricia accordingly.[42] Overall, it was the fourth-strongest landfalling Mexican hurricane by sustained wind speed, behind the following Atlantic hurricanes, each with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h): Janet in 1955, Anita in 1977, and Dean in 2007.[43] Masters and Henson surmised Otis' landfall saw the most people to have experienced the eyewall of a Category 5 hurricane. They further stated the only hurricane of comparison was Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which struck the Miami Metropolitan Area at Category 5 strength.[15]
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