Membru din: Dum Feb 17, 2008 1:00 pm Mesaje: 14393 Localitate: Tg-Mures
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Iata cateva exemple care denota destul de clar faptul ca inca habar n-avem sa facem preziceri, ceea ce nimerim e doar media sau trendul.Schimbarile bruste sau recordurile nu suntem in stare inca sa le prognozam. On December 5, 2012, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast predicting an above-average hurricane season. In its report, the organization called for 15.4 (±4.3) named storms, 7.7 (±2.9) hurricanes, 3.4 (±1.6) major hurricanes, and a cumulative Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 134, citing the forecast for slower-than-average trade winds and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures. While no value was placed on the number of expected landfalls during the season, TSR stated that the landfalling ACE index was expected to be above average.[4] Four months later, on April 5, Tropical Storm Risk issued its updated forecast, continuing to call for an above-average season with 15.2 (±4.1) named storms, 7.5 (±2. hurricanes, 3.4 (±1.6) major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 131; the landfalling ACE index was once again forecast to be higher than normal
On April 10, Colorado State University (CSU) issued its first forecast for the season, calling for a potentially hyperactive season with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 165. In its report, the agency stated that above-average sea surface temperatures in the MDR, below-average forecast wind shear, and the unlikeliness of an El Niño developing prior to the peak of the season would enhance tropical cyclone activity. The probabilities of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast and East Coast were much above-average, while the probability of a major hurricane hitting anywhere along the USA coastline were well above-average as well
On May 15, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) issued a forecast of a slightly above-average season. It predicted 14 named storms with a 70% chance that the number would be between 10 and 18 and 9 hurricanes with a 70% chance that the number would be between 4 and 14. It also predicted an ACE index of 130 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range 76 to 184.[9] On May 23, 2013, NOAA issued its first seasonal outlook for the year, stating there was a 70% likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes; these ranges are greater than the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The three main factors contributing to a well above-average to hyperactive hurricane season included above-average sea surface temperatures across much of the Atlantic, the absence of an El Niño in the Pacific, and the continuity of the active era since 1995.[10] On May 30, the Florida State University Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, FSU COAPS, issued its first and only prediction for the season. The organization called for 12 to 17 named storms, of which 5 to 10 would further intensify into hurricanes; no forecast was given for the number of major hurricanes. In addition, an ACE index of 135 units was forecast. The group attributed its high number of predicted storms to the recent uptick in tropical cyclone activity since 1995.
On June 3, Colorado State University issued its first mid-season prediction for the remainder of the year. In its report, the organization continued to predict well above-average activity, with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 165 units. The two main factors included in the report included the lack of an El Niño and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across much of the Atlantic. CSU stated that there was a 72% chance of at least one major hurricane impacting any stretch of the United States coastline; the chances of a major hurricane hitting the East Coast and Gulf Coast were 48% and 47%, respectively.[12] The following day, Tropical Storm Risk issued its third forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 134 units; this activity was predicted to be roughly 30% above the 1950-2012 long-term mean. TSR gave a 65% probability that the landfalling ACE index would be above-average. Above-average activity was forecast on the basis of slower-than-average trade winds and warm ocean temperatures
Finally, on August 8, NOAA issued its second and final outlook for the season, predicting 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes; these numbers were down ever so slightly from its May outlook. The agency stated a wetter-than-average western Africa and above-average sea surface temperatures in its reportAvem asadar estimari de la 13 la 20 furtuni tropicale, 6-10 uragane si 3-5 uragane majore.ACE, adica energia ciclonica acumulata intre 100-165 unitati. In realitate la 16 octombrie avem: 11 furtuni tropicale, 2 uragane si 0 uragane majore.ACE, este de 28.02 unitati.Ingredientele au fost la fel, Africa de vest mai umeda decat de obicei, apa la fel de calda, peste media normala, lipsa El Nino etc.Insa o gramada de agentii care lucreaza pe bani seriosi au gafat in serie.Nici macar una n-a fost in stare sa anticipeze o schimbare in trend, dupa cum vedem nici macar in luna august n-au fost in stare sa anticipeze acest lucru.
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