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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Mar Oct 18, 2011 2:38 am 
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Ce se asteapta in sezonul 2011/2012 ...

Above average tropical cyclone activity expected for the coming season




Above average tropical cyclone activity expected for the coming season

Issued: 17 October 2011

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its annual tropical cyclone season outlook today, which points to an above average number of tropical cyclones for all four regions across northern Australia during the coming season.

Bureau of Meteorology Climate Prediction Manager, Dr Andrew Watkins, said climate models were trending toward another La Niña, which would lead us to expect a slightly higher than average number of tropical cyclones, however, no two La Niña events are the same.

"The Southern Oscillation Index, a key climate driver, was (positive) 11.7 in September this year, compared with (positive) 25 at the same time last year. While this La Niña may be weaker than the last, this doesn’t mean we can expect fewer tropical cyclones than the previous season. In other words, we can’t afford to be complacent," said Dr Watkins.

For further information, please see attached media release.


Please see the following files attached:
[BoM Media Release_Australian Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook_17 Oct 2011.pdf]


Distributed by AAP Medianet


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Joi Dec 08, 2011 2:46 pm 
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Membru din: Dum Feb 17, 2008 1:00 pm
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Localitate: Tg-Mures
Alenga s-a intensificat puternic dupa ce a trecut in perimetrul celor de la Perth-Australia, astfel ca centrul australian de meteo, BOM, indica o presiune de 968mb si vant sustinut de 80kt.Alenga este un ciclon tropical sever de categoria 3-a pe scare australiana, diferita insa fata de scara Saffir-Simpson(SS), folosita de americani, unde se situeaza pe categoria a 2-a, cu 90kt si 956mb, conform JTWC.Acesta se pare ca a fost punctul maxim al ciclonului, acesta inaintand spre s-e, unde apele sunt din ce in ce mai reci si instabilitatea mai mare.

Imagine

Imagine


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Joi Dec 08, 2011 3:11 pm 
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Membru din: Vin Dec 05, 2008 1:00 pm
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Localitate: Cluj-Napoca
Hmm...poate forfecare mai mare, ca instabilitatea e buna, daca ne referim la CAPE


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Dum Dec 11, 2011 1:36 am 
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Alenga s-a dus, unde se poate naste urmatorul TC in zona AU???

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Saturday the 10th of December 2011
Valid until midnight WST Tuesday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

At noon WST Saturday, ex-Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located near 22.5S 103.8E,
is moving southeast and is not expected to redevelop.

Potential Cyclones:
There is a weak surface low near 16S 095E which is not expected to develop into
a tropical cyclone and is moving to be west of 090E by Monday.

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Sunday :Low
Monday :Very Low
Tuesday :Very Low


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Dum Dec 11, 2011 12:24 pm 
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Niciunde practic :D.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Lun Dec 12, 2011 10:26 am 
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cam asa ceva ...niciunde!


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Mar Dec 20, 2011 9:45 am 
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Primul ciclon se pare ca va fi numit de Queensland, probabil maine, insa nu e roz nici aici in NT...check this out....
NT:
http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml


Queensland:
http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Mie Dec 21, 2011 1:48 am 
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IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1918 UTC 20/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.1S
Longitude: 155.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [112 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12:
+24: 21/1800: 16.3S 156.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 22/0600: 17.5S 156.9E: 150 [280]: 050 [095]: 987
+48: 22/1800: 18.4S 156.7E: 185 [345]: 060 [110]: 978
+60: 23/0600: 19.4S 156.8E: 230 [430]: 050 [095]: 984
+72: 23/1800: 19.9S 157.4E: 280 [520]: 035 [065]: 995
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap, giving DT
of 2.0. MT and PT agree. FT based on MT as DT is not clear.

Organisation has improved slightly and convection has consolidated in the
vicinity of the low in the last 24 hours. The low appears to be in a favourable
environment for development with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures
around 30 degrees.

However, an upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on
Thursday, which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The
increase in the wind shear is likely to hinder development from Friday onwards,
though computer model guidance indicates that intensification may still occur
while the system possibly undergoes extra tropical transition.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Mie Dec 21, 2011 9:59 am 
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Cel din Coral Sea nu va afecta Australia, e aproape de zona Fiji si intr-acolo se indreapta.In schimba perturbatia chiar de la nord de Darwin are toate sansele sa devina un ciclon serios in preajma Craciunului.N-ar fi prima data cand cei de pe coasta de vest isi petrec astfel Craciunul.Apropo, cum se vede din Darwin aceasta perturbatie?Ploaie, descarcari electrice serioase sau doar pe mare sunt astfel de fenomene.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Joi Dec 22, 2011 4:00 pm 
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Localitate: Darwin-Australia
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0731 UTC 22/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.2S
Longitude: 132.0E
Location Accuracy: within 100 nm [185 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:

Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/S/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/1800: 10.1S 131.7E: 135 [250]: 025 [045]: 999
+24: 23/0600: 10.5S 131.8E: 170 [315]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 23/1800: 10.9S 131.8E: 205 [380]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 24/0600: 11.0S 131.5E: 240 [445]: 040 [075]: 992
+60: 24/1800: 11.1S 130.9E: 270 [500]: 050 [095]: 986
+72: 25/0600: 11.6S 130.0E: 300 [555]: 055 [100]: 984
REMARKS:
The low level system centre location is poor, based on latest visible imagery
and surface observations. Any convection that is developing near the centre is
advecting away from the system, indicating there is no mid level circulation
associated with the system. Model analyses suggest that a shear line extends
over the system at both 700 and 500 hPa, rather than a discrete circulation

Given the lack of deep convection near the centre the intensity analysis is held
at the bare minimum.

Surface pressures continue to drop by about 2 hPa per day, and upper level
diffluent flow is evident as a mid and upper level trough passes to the south.
Guidance does suggest that eventually the circulation will extend in depth over
the next 24 to 48 hours, however the system is still likely to be 36 to 60 hours
away from reaching TC intensity.

Two models have suggested in recent runs that capture in the monsoon flow to the
north and a resultant track to the SE remain possible, however the consensus
from the remaining models is that the system will steer to the WSW or SW for a
period as the mid level ridge briefly builds in the wake of the mobile trough.
This is the preferred solution.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Joi Dec 22, 2011 4:03 pm 
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http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

"Fina" a fost numit la 01Z , cateva ore ca Ciclon categorie 1, dar deja este ex-tropical si se indreapta catre sud, in afara de high seas warnings, nu prezinta interes.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Joi Dec 22, 2011 4:06 pm 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
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Cel din Arafura Sea, se vede foarte slab pe sat image, se asteapta insa sa se intensifice si probabil sambata va deveni ciclon. Modelele ca de obicei o iau razna, e devreme sa pui o traiectorie, oricum ...cam asta este oficial...
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65011.shtml


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Joi Dec 22, 2011 4:17 pm 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
sorifin scrie:
Cel din Coral Sea nu va afecta Australia, e aproape de zona Fiji si intr-acolo se indreapta.In schimba perturbatia chiar de la nord de Darwin are toate sansele sa devina un ciclon serios in preajma Craciunului.N-ar fi prima data cand cei de pe coasta de vest isi petrec astfel Craciunul.Apropo, cum se vede din Darwin aceasta perturbatie?Ploaie, descarcari electrice serioase sau doar pe mare sunt astfel de fenomene.



E drept, si cei de pe aici au amintiri inca de pe urma lui Tracy, horror Christmas... Acum in Darwin e liniste, moonsoonul trough este acum in Arafura sea, foarte aproape de coasta nordica. Asta a fost si ideea, depresiunea tropicala s-a format atunci cand moonsoon trough s-a mutata inapoi pe ocean. Acum cateva zile cand Darwin era chia pe zona de convergenta musonica, am avut super activitate iar de aici nu se vede nimic, nici pe sat image si nici pe radar....e liniste, ....linistea de dinaintea furtunii...


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Vin Dec 23, 2011 4:09 pm 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
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Localitate: Darwin-Australia
OK , cat 1 pe Sunday si se pare ca se va face landfall la est de Darwin...
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0745 UTC 23/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.8S
Longitude: 132.5E
Location Accuracy: within 100 nm [185 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [104 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:

Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 23/1800: 10.8S 132.7E: 145 [270]: 025 [045]: 999
+24: 24/0600: 10.9S 133.0E: 175 [325]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 24/1800: 10.7S 133.2E: 210 [385]: 045 [085]: 987
+48: 25/0600: 10.9S 133.0E: 250 [460]: 050 [095]: 984
+60: 25/1800: 11.6S 133.0E: 295 [550]: 045 [085]: 991
+72: 26/0600: 12.8S 133.3E: 320 [590]: 030 [055]: 997
REMARKS:
Structure of low has become better organised but still elongated along the
trough axis. 24 hour visible imagery comparison shows greater curvature of the
low cloud lines and convection becoming more focussed around the centre.
Persistence of organised convection over the past 12 hours is against the
diurnal cycle indicating improved potential for development overnight.

Dvorak analysis remains difficult with a lack of banding around the low level
centre. FT is based on MET=PT=2.0

Pressures continue to drop by around 2hPa per day. Latest AScat pass shows a
band of 25kt northwesterlies in the convergent monsoon flow to the north of the
low.

The majority of guidance is maintaining slow movement north of the coast for the
next 24 to 48 hours due to a fine balance between the monsoon flow and the
mid-level ridge to the south. In the longer term the consensus is for an
easterly movement as the ridge decays.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Lun Dec 26, 2011 9:51 pm 
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Membru din: Dum Feb 17, 2008 1:00 pm
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Pana la urma depresiunea a devenit ciclon si a fost denumit Grant.A lovit coasta de nord a NT in seara de Craciun, deci un Craciun furtunos pt multi locuitori din acea regiune.In momentul sosirii pe uscat ciclonul era in plina intensificare, norocul a fost ca s-a format destul de aproape de coasta, astfel ca timpul ramas pt intensificare a fost scurt, altfel cine stie ce iesea, apele fiind foarte calde in acea zona.Totusi exista diferente mari de apreciere a intensitatii intre JTWC si BOM.Primii care utilizeaza scara SS au dat viteza maxima a vantului de 40kt/ 1 min si presiunea minima 993mb.Cei de la BOM, cu viteza medie masurata timp de 3 minute, deci teoretic mai mica de cea la 1 min, au dat viteza maxima de 55kt si o presiune mult mai scazuta de 978mb, chiar foarte scazuta pt un ciclon de doar 55kt.Dupa imaginile satelitare inclin spre JTWC, dar poate ne lamureste Brani care au fost sursele celor de la BOM.

Imagine


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