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Modele numerice
http://forum.meteorologie.ro/tehnica-calcul/topic965-30.html		 Pagina 3 din 3
Autor:  Andrei87 [ Vin Iul 09, 2010 3:31 pm ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Hmmm...inseamna ca am ramas in urma. Cand trecuse la 35 km?
Autor:  steaua [ Vin Iul 09, 2010 3:33 pm ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
In mesajul tau de mai sus am vazut. :mrgreen:
Andrei87 scrie:
THE RESOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST
MODEL WILL BE INCREASED FROM T382 /35 KM/ TO T574 /27 KM/.
Autor:  Andrei87 [ Vin Iul 09, 2010 3:41 pm ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Damn. :mrgreen: Fail :oops:
Autor:  steaua [ Mie Iul 21, 2010 6:15 pm ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Upgrade-ul se amana pentru 28 iulie:

July 2010
GFS upgrade

NOUS41 KWBC 191802 AAB
PNSWSH

TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 10-15... AMENDED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC 158 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

TO:
SUBSCRIBERS: -FAMILY OF SERVICES -NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE -EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK -NOAAPORT OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES

FROM:
TIMOTHY MCCLUNG SCIENCE PLANS BRANCH CHIEF OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

SUBJECT:
AMENDED DATE: GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM CHANGES: RESCHEDULED FOR JULY 28 2010

REFER TO:
TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE /TIN/ 10-15 TRANSMITTED APRIL 2 2010...AMENDED TIN 10-15 TRANSMITTED JUNE 14 2010

DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND ALL DOWNSTREAM DEPENDENCIES...THE EFFECTIVE DATE OF THE UPGRADE IS BEING RESCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 28. IF THE NWS DECLARES A CRITICAL WEATHER DAY ON OR AROUND JULY 28 THE IMPLEMENTATION MIGHT BE DELAYED. ANOTHER TIN WILL BE SENT IF THIS OCCURS.

EFFECTIVE JULY 28 2010...BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM /GFS/. THE RESOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL WILL BE INCREASED FROM T382 /35 KM/ TO T574 /27 KM/. THE HIGH RESOLUTION PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE EXTENDED FROM 180 HRS TO 192 HRS. WITH THIS EXTENSION 3 HOURLY OUTPUT WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE OUT TO 192 HOURS.

THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DEFINITION OF PARAMETERS IN THE 192 HOUR PRESSURE GRIB /PGRB/ AND FLUX FILES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODEL PHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CHANGE. IN ADDITION MODIFICATIONS WILL BE MADE TO THE CONTENTS OF THE GLOBAL DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM /GDAS/ AND GFS PGRB FILES.

CHANGES IN MODEL PHYSICS INCLUDE:
RADIATION AND CLOUD OVERLAP
GRAVITY WAVE DRAG
HURRICANE RELOCATION
NEW PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER SCHEME
NEW MASS FLUX SHALLOW CONVECTION
UPDATED DEEP CONVECTION SCHEME
POSITIVE DEFINITE TRACER TRANSPORT SCHEME

THE NEW PARAMETER FOR THE GFS FORECAST PRESSURE GRIB FILE IS:
MAX WIND GUST

SEVERAL PARAMETERS ARE BEING DELETED FROM THE GDAS ANALYSIS PRESSURE GRIB FILES BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT VALID FOR THE ANALYSIS DATASET AND HAVE NEVER PROVIDED PERTINENT INFORMATION. THESE INCLUDE:
4 PRECIPITATION TYPES
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION RATE
LAND SEA MASK
LATENT HEAT FLUX
SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX
PRECIPITATION RATE
2M RH
2M SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
2M TEMPERATURE
BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER
LOW CLOUD COVER
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
SKIN TEMPERATURE
SURFACE UPWARD LONG WAVE FLUX
SURFACE UPWARD SHORT WAVE FLUX HELICITY

THESE PARAMETERS ARE BEING DELETED FROM THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL SIMULATED GOES GRIB FILE BECAUSE THEY WERE INCLUDED IN ERROR. THESE FIELDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE PGRB FILES:
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
WAVE-5 GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

ALL ACCUMULATED OR AVERAGED VALUES IN THE 192 HOUR PGRB AND FLUX FILES WILL NOW BE OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD INSTEAD OF 12 HOURS. THE FORMAT AND CONTENT OF THE 3 HOURLY FILES FROM 180 TO 192 HOURS WILL BE THE SAME AS THE FILES FROM 0 TO 180. FOR THE FLUX FILE...THIS INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE PARAMETERS IN THE FILE. PARAMETERS CHANGING IN THE PGRB FILE ARE:
2 M ABOVE GROUND MAX. TEMPERATURE
2 M ABOVE GROUND MIN. TEMPERATURE
SURFACE ALBEDO
SURFACE CLEAR SKY UV-B DOWNWARD SOLAR FLUX
SURFACE CATEGORICAL FREEZING RAIN
SURFACE CATEGORICAL ICE PELLETS
SURFACE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION RATE
SURFACE CATEGORICAL RAIN
SURFACE CATEGORICAL SNOW
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CLOUD WORK FUNCTION
SURFACE DOWNWARD LONG WAVE FLUX
SURFACE DOWNWARD SHORT WAVE FLUX
SURFACE UV-B DOWNWARD SOLAR FLUX
SURFACE GROUND HEAT FLUX
SURFACE LATENT HEAT FLUX
SURFACE PRECIPITATION RATE
LOW CLOUD BASE PRESSURE
LOW CLOUD TOP PRESSURE
MID-CLOUD BASE PRESSURE
MID-CLOUD TOP PRESSURE
HIGH CLOUD BASE PRESSURE
HIGH CLOUD TOP PRESSURE
SURFACE SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TOTAL CLOUD COVER
BOUNDARY CLOUD LAYER TOTAL CLOUD COVER
LOW CLOUD COVER
MID-CLOUD COVER
HIGH CLOUD COVER
LOW CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE
MID-CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE
HIGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE
SURFACE ZONAL GRAVITY WAVE STRESS
SURFACE ZONAL MOMENTUM FLUX
SURFACE UPWARD LONG WAVE FLUX
TOP OF ATMOSPHERE UPWARD LONG WAVE FLUX
SURFACE UPWARD SHORT WAVE FLUX
TOP OF ATMOSPHERE UPWARD SHORT WAVE FLUX
SURFACE MERIDIONAL GRAVITY WAVE STRESS
SURFACE MERIDIONAL MOMENTUM FLUX
SURFACE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
SURFACE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
SURFACE LARGE SCALE PRECIPITATION
NOTE THAT FOR THE 192 HR PGRB PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON NOAAPORT AND IN AWIPS... THE ACCUMULATIONS AND AVERAGES WILL REMAIN OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOUR PERIOD UNTIL AWIPS IS MODIFIED TO ACCOMMODATE THIS CHANGE.

ONE ADDITIONAL CHANGE TO NOTE IS THAT THE FILE PGRBF192.GRIB2 ON THE NCEP FTP SERVER WILL CHANGE FROM CONTAINING MODEL OUTPUT ON A 2.5 DEGREE GRID TO CONTAINING MODEL OUTPUT ON A 1 DEGREE GRID. THE 2.5 DEGREE OUTPUT WILL BE PROVIDED IN A NEW FILE WITH THE NAME PGRBF192.2P5DEG.GRIB2.

THE FORMAT OF THE HALF AND ONE DEGREE PRESSURE GRIB FILES WILL REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR THE CHANGES IN VARIABLES LISTED ABOVE. THE SIZE OF THESE FILES WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MODEL RESOLUTION...THE SIZE OF THE SIGMA COEFFICIENT FILES AND THE SURFACE FLUX FILES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THESE CONTENT CHANGES WILL IMPACT ALL DISSEMINATION ROUTES: NWS PUBLIC FTP SERVER...THE NCEP PUBLIC FTP SERVER AND NOAAPORT.

A SET OF TEST DATA IS AVAILABLE /USE LOWERCASE/::
FTP://FTP.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/GC_WMB/WX24 ... .20091217/

A CONSISTENT PARALLEL FEED OF DATA IS AVAILABLE ON THE NCEP FTP SERVER AT THE FOLLOWING URL /USE LOWERCASE/:

FTP://FTP.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PARA

DATA DELIVERY TIMING OF THE GFS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY THIS IMPLEMENTATION.

NCEP ENCOURAGES ALL USERS TO ENSURE THEIR DECODERS ARE FLEXIBLE AND ARE ABLE OF ADEQUATELY HANDLING CHANGES IN CONTENT... PARAMETER FIELDS CHANGING ORDER...CHANGES IN THE SCALING FACTOR COMPONENT WITHIN THE PRODUCT DEFINITION SECTION /PDS/ OF THE GRIB FILES AND ANY VOLUME CHANGES WHICH MAY OCCUR. THESE ELEMENTS MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE NCEP MODEL IMPLEMENTATIONS. NCEP WILL MAKE EVERY ATTEMPT TO ALERT USERS TO THESE CHANGES PRIOR TO ANY IMPLEMENTATIONS.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS CONCERNING THESE CHANGES...PLEASE CONTACT:

JOHN H. WARD
NCEP...GLOBAL MODELING BRANCH
CAMP SPRINGS MARYLAND
PHONE: 301-763-8000 X7185
EMAIL: JOHN.WARD@NOAA.GOV
OR
SHRINIVAS MOORTHI
NCEP...GLOBAL MODELING BRANCH
CAMP SPRINGS MARYLAND
PHONE: 301-763-8000 X7233
EMAIL: SHRINIVAS.MOORTHI@NOAA.GOV

NWS NATIONAL TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICES ARE ONLINE AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OS/NOTIF.HTM
$$ NNNN
Autor:  Andrei87 [ Mie Iul 28, 2010 11:34 pm ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Pe hartile astea se vede cel mai bine ca si-a marit rezolutia, conturul acumularilor de precipitatii nu mai e asa "brut":

gfs 06z, inainte de upgrade
Imagine

gfs 12z, dupa upgrade
Imagine
Autor:  CrazyFrog [ Vin Sep 30, 2011 10:12 am ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Astazi ma reapuc sa instalez modelul WRF 3.3. Timp de 1 an am incercat, dar fara rezultate, am sa incerc sa-l compilez pe ultima versiune de linux ubuntu. Va tin la curent cu progresul facut.
Autor:  CrazyFrog [ Dum Oct 02, 2011 12:41 am ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
In final am reusit sa compilez executabilele modelului :lol: :D 8) . Urmeaza sa-l rulez cu un scenariu de test, iar apoi dupa ce deslusesc toate chestiile din el, il instalez pe un PC nou si o sa fac rulari periodice.
Autor:  steaua [ Dum Iun 24, 2012 7:52 pm ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Noi actualizari aduse modelului ECMWF.
http://ecmwf.int/publications/cms/get/e ... 0270006042
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/ifs_cycle_38r1/
Autor:  steaua [ Mar Oct 09, 2012 3:54 pm ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Topografia modelelor este unul dintre cei mai importanti factori in realizarea prognozelor, datorita caruia apar mari diferente fata de realitate. Depresiunile si vaile sunt anulate complet. Chiar si pt altitudine se face o mediere, in calcul intrand si rezolutia.
2 modele, GFS Global (1°) si NMM-12:

Imagine
Imagine
Autor:  Andrei87 [ Mar Oct 09, 2012 6:13 pm ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Sunt curios cum ar arata nucleul ARW, pe care zice ca lucreaza Liviu.
Autor:  DanielRobert13 [ Mar Feb 12, 2013 4:43 am ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Nu prea i-am gasit locul, asa ca l-am postat aici. Mi s-a parut interesant.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ro/2013/02/th ... r-gap.html
Autor:  Andrei87 [ Mie Feb 13, 2013 3:32 pm ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Foarte interesant si bun articolul...
Autor:  steaua [ Joi Ian 16, 2020 6:28 pm ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Pe weatheronline.eu modelul Euro 4 (4x4 km, 0.04 x 0.04 grade, orar) este acum disponibil gratuit si i-a luat locul celuilalt. Era premium si contracost pana de curand.
Autor:  doodoo [ Vin Ian 17, 2020 11:27 am ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
steaua scrie:
Pe weatheronline.eu modelul Euro 4 (4x4 km, 0.04 x 0.04 grade, orar) este acum disponibil gratuit si i-a luat locul celuilalt. Era premium si contracost pana de curand.


Perioada de acoperire - 2 zile in avans :wink:
Autor:  Andrei87 [ Vin Ian 17, 2020 11:36 pm ]
Subiectul mesajului:  Re: Modele numerice
Euro4 e demult free pe kachelmann.
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