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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Mar Noi 22, 2011 3:31 pm 
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Membru din: Dum Feb 17, 2008 1:00 pm
Mesaje: 14471
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Un sezon fantastic de o parte si de alta a Americii de Nord.Daca in Atlantic s-a consemnat un record, din primele 8 furtuni formate niciuna n-a devenit uragan, apoi din 18 furtuni formate, doar 7 au devenit uragane.Per total un sezon normal din punct de vedere al uraganelor insa mult peste media de 10 la numarul de furtuni formate.In contrast cu aceste aspecte in Pacificul de Est, din cele 11 furtuni formate, numar sub normalul de 16, 10 din ele au devenit uragane, peste media de 9 si 6 uragane majore.Deci din 11 furtuni doar una a ratat intensificarea in uragan.Acest fapt e fara precedent in era satelitara.Apoi ca totul sa fie desavarsit, s-a format cea mai tarzie furtuna tropicala dupa anul 1983, denumita Kenneth, care s-a intensificat in uragan devenind astfel cel mai tarziu uragan inregistrat vreodata in acest bazin.Si nu s-a terminat aici.Kenneth a uitat ca suntem in prag de decembrie si se manifesta ca in miezul sezonului.Conditiile intalnite de traiectoria sa sunt perfecte astfel ca uraganul a inceput o intensificare rapida, a devenit uragan major de categoria 3-a, insa aceasta catalogare spun eu ca este conservativa, uraganul arata de categoria 4-a, iar datele in timp real ADT, confirma acest lucru, Kenneth avand forta 6.6 ceea ce inseamna 940mb si 125kt.Oficial NHC Kenneth este cotat la 110kt si 957mb, insa si ei spun ca intensificarea va continua si va deveni oficial de categoria 4-a.

Imagine

Imagine

Imagine


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Mar Noi 22, 2011 9:51 pm 
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Membru din: Vin Dec 05, 2008 1:00 pm
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Localitate: Bistrita
meserias...

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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Lun Mai 14, 2012 5:55 pm 
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Membru din: Dum Feb 17, 2008 1:00 pm
Mesaje: 14471
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S-a deschis sezonul 2012 in acest bazin.Prima depresiunie tropicala s-a format in urma cu cateva minute.1E va avea viata scurta si sansele sunt de 50/50 pt a se intensifica si a fi denumita.Numele primit in acest caz ar fi Aletta.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Vin Iul 06, 2012 8:55 am 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
TS DANIEL Pacificul de vest


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

...DANIEL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 113.1W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. DANIEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DANIEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Sâm Iul 07, 2012 2:54 am 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
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TS Daniel continua sa se intensifice incet, max winds 60Kt. Un alt trop cyclone se poate forma la vest de Mexic...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 6 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Sâm Ian 12, 2013 12:26 pm 
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Cifrele sezonului tropical 2012 din acest bazin:

In acest sezon s-au format 17 depresiuni tropicale toate devenite furtuni tropicale primind un nume.Uragane au devenit 10, din care 5 s-au intensificat mai departe la gradul de uragane majore.Un sezon normal din toate punctele de vedere si fara nicio furtuna memorabila.Practic se va uita repede.

Depresiuni tropicale 17, media multianuala 17, recordul maxim 26, recordul minim 11

Furtuni tropicale 17, media multianuala 16, recordul maxim 24, recordul minim 7

Uragane(cat.1-5) 10, media multianuala 9, recordul maxim 16, recordul minim 3

Uragane majore(cat.3-5) 5, media multianuala 4, recordul maxim 8, recordul minim 0


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Lun Oct 06, 2014 4:45 pm 
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Membru din: Vin Dec 05, 2008 1:00 pm
Mesaje: 37266
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Vreau sa traiesc si eu o astfel de experienta. :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMvNYO3486E


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Mie Oct 08, 2014 10:36 am 
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Esti sigur ? :twisted:


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Mie Oct 08, 2014 10:38 am 
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Membru din: Vin Iun 20, 2008 1:00 pm
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Andrei87 scrie:
Vreau sa traiesc si eu o astfel de experienta. :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMvNYO3486E


YEAH RIGHT :))))))))))))


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Mie Oct 08, 2014 10:44 am 
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DAAA....


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Vin Oct 23, 2015 8:39 pm 
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Membru din: Vin Dec 05, 2008 1:00 pm
Mesaje: 37266
Localitate: Bistrita
320 km/h sustinut si rafale de 395 km/h. Cel mai puternic ciclon tropical din istorie. Eu zic ca le cam baga din burta americanii astia, arata violent dar am vazut altele cu potential mai mare, cum ar fi Haiyan. Sorine tu ce zici?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3165

Scaderea aia de presiune e impresionanta in schimb...100 mb in 24 de ore. 8O De la furtuna tropicala la uragan de categoria 5 in numai 24 de ore chiar e ceva fantastic.

http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Vin Oct 23, 2015 11:27 pm 
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Nu sunt din burta. Sunt verificate. Din pacate in Pacificul de Vest nu avem masuratori si atunci americanii au dreptul sa spuna ce vor. Sunt in schimb de acord ca Haiyan sau Megi, sau chiar Soudelor din acest an au aratat mult ma bine satelitar decat Patricia, si chiar decat Tip. Insa fara masuratori, ramanem doar cu supozitiile, si cu recordul Patriciei, record de vant, pt ca la presiune mai avea 9mb pana la Tip.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Oceanul Pacific de Est
MesajScris: Mie Noi 01, 2023 7:15 pm 
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Chiar daca e un copy paste, merita citit si postat si aici pe forum, pentru ca ce s-a intamplat cu Uraganul Otis care a devastat Acapulco, nu s-a mai intamplat niciodata. E absolut inexplicabil cum s-au produs asemenea erori in acesti ani si inca un semn cat se poate de clar ca natura pana la urma, e complet imprevizibila.


Forecast errors and distinctions

The intensity of Hurricane Otis was among the most poorly forecast in the modern era. Meteorologists Jeff Masters and Bob Henson at Yale University called the underestimation "one of the biggest and most consequential forecast-model misses of recent years." Numerical weather prediction models failed to capture the magnitude of explosive intensification that occurred, in part due to a dearth of data.[15] Several experts, including director of the National Hurricane Center Michael Brennan, noted that there are very few instruments — such as ocean buoys or radar — available for evaluating hurricane strength in the East Pacific, leaving forecasters reliant on satellite data.[40] As described by the New York Times, forecasts of Otis upon its formation on October 22 "didn’t show much to be concerned about."[23] In their first advisory, the NHC forecast a peak intensity of just 45 mph (75 km/h) with the system moving north-northwest and later west away from the Mexican coastline. Forecasters John Cangialosi and Lisa Buccia noted that many models showed the storm outright dissipating within five days.[11]

Early on October 23, Blake noted that models were incorrectly diagnosing conditions and showing Otis intertwined with the Intertropical Convergence Zone. He adjusted his forecast to show a faster motion which would bring the system onto the Mexican coastline on October 26.[14] Later that day, forecasters Cangialosi and Sandy Delgado noted a substantial disparity in various model solutions, with results differing based on how vertically aligned the storm would become or not become.[41] Conditions for a more potent system became more apparent during the overnight hours of October 23–24. This included high sea surface temperatures, lower wind shear, and abundant moisture. The system also became vertically aligned. The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) rapid intensification index increased to 25 percent, leading forecasters to raise their intensity predictions above most model outputs.[18][23] At 09:00 UTC (4:00 a.m. CDT) on October 24, less than 24 hours before landfall, the NHC expected Otis to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane as it moved ashore.[18] Sixteen hours prior to landfall, the system was forecast to move ashore at least five hours later than it actually did. The dramatic rate of intensification was not apparent until reconnaissance aircraft sampled the storm during the afternoon of October 24.[15] At 00:00 UTC on October 25 (7:00 p.m. CDT, October 24) just 6.5 hours before the storm made landfall, the NHC upgraded Otis to a Category 4 hurricane and explicitly forecast it to become a Category 5 hurricane before making landfall.[22]

The rate of Hurricane Otis' intensification was among the fastest observed in the satellite-era. In a 24-hour period, the hurricane's maximum sustained winds increased by 110 to 115 mph (175 to 185 km/h), ranking it as the third- or second-fastest worldwide. Only Hurricane Patricia in 2015 intensified at a faster rate in the Eastern Pacific, increasing by 120 mph (195 km/h) in the same time.[15] With winds of 165 mph (270 km/h), Otis became the first Pacific hurricane on record to make landfall at Category 5 intensity, surpassing Hurricane Patricia accordingly.[42] Overall, it was the fourth-strongest landfalling Mexican hurricane by sustained wind speed, behind the following Atlantic hurricanes, each with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h): Janet in 1955, Anita in 1977, and Dean in 2007.[43] Masters and Henson surmised Otis' landfall saw the most people to have experienced the eyewall of a Category 5 hurricane. They further stated the only hurricane of comparison was Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which struck the Miami Metropolitan Area at Category 5 strength.[15]


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