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Storm or not in Darwin?

http://aifsa-nt.bom.gov.au/data/skewt/94120.png

analiza completa a sounding-ului.....

http://www.nt.bom.gov.au/ntregion/sevwx ... 1300Z.html

nu mi se incarca nici unul din linkuri...

Nici la mine, Connecting to...; si nu sunt pe Digi Rama ci la birou.

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incercam altfel, la mine merge ... poate au pus ceva coding cei de la IT .

http://aifsa-nt.bom.gov.au/rgn/docs/ope ... ndings.htm

ori Wyoming...


http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=94120

INteresant ce valori obtineam din sounding, am dat un copy-paste
primele valori sunt pentru "unmodified", urmatoarele pentru "coastal" si ultimele pentru "inland"

CAPE (J/kg)



2811 ex...unmodified

4682 -coastal

2596 -inland
CIN (J/kg)





32

9

18
CG (kn)...convective gust





52

53

61
Todays precipitable water: 50.2 (gtaverage)
Todays max low-mid wind shear (sfc to 12000 ft) 122 / 35kt
Todays 850-600 hPa DLM wind 113 / 13 kt
Todays 850-600 hPa standard deviation/speed .72

A. Is a thunderstorm possible? Yes
B. Likely TS timing 06-12Z
(Normal) B2 significant low level inversion
B4 unmodified CAPE <= 3500 J/kg

C. Enhanced TS activity probability Low C5 precip water > average

D. Organised TS probability Low D2 max low level to mid-level shear >= 20kt
D3 850-600 LM wind >= 12 kt
D6 unmod or mod CAPE > 1200

E. Severe convective wind gust probability Moderate E2 mod CAPE >= 3000 + mod CG >= 50 kt
D6 unmod or mod CAPE > 1200

F. Heavy Rain/Flash Flood probability Low C5 precip water > average

G. Tornado/waterspout probability Low G3 max low to mid-level shear >= 35 kt

H. Steering Direction Continental H1 850-600 LM wind dir 070-230 deg


Meteorologist assessments based on Convective Analysis, NTFGS and other guidance:
Darwin City/Suburbs 80%
Darwin Rural Area 40%
Risk of organized convection within the forecast period Moderate
Risk of severe convective wind gusts within the forecast period Moderate