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Haha, stai linistit ca Badea nu e nefericit cu salariul pe care il are si cu tipa aia langa el. Ala e doar un rol pe care il joaca, ca sa intre in psihicul multor romani care sunt exact asa cum ai zis, si sa faca audienta in felul asta, saracii oameni crezand ca se identifica cu el. Poate c-o fi fost frustrat si el in tinerete si de-aia joaca asa bine, dar acum cu siguranta nu e.
Nu e prost baiatul, isi face foarte bine meseria...

De parca prognozele pe 24 de ore iasa mai bine decat cele pt 3 luni.Au un grad mai mare de reusita ce-i drept, insa in veci pururi procentele de reusita nu vor trece de 90%.Uite azi.Maxime prognozate intre 3-13.Ce-a iesit?Maxime intre -2 si 17 sau 18.E o reusita asta??Nu cred.Doar anticipatia corecta de incalzire e o reusita.Exact nu s-a stiut.Asa si cu prognozele pe 3 luni.Daca se seziseaza o tendinta dupa parerea mea e o mare reusita.Exact nu va putea fi spus niciodata.E prea mare si amplu acest sistem al naturii pt a-l putea prezice cu exactitate.Eu din cauza asta prefer statisticile.E mult mai simplu sa analizezi ce-a fost si ce este in prezent si sa tragi concluzii, decat sa te hazardezi la ce va fi si sa nu iasa nimic.

Ce stiu este ca atunci cand in Romania vremea se pune pe tanjeala, monotonie, plictiseala sau mai ales seceta o tine in proasta o perioada luuuuungaaaaa de iti cad ochii si limba asteptand sa se mai intample ceva, asa ca prognoza unei ierni uscate are mari sanse de reusita.

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A venit Ursula, zeita din UE, sa-si primeasca rima.

Sper sa fie contrazise prognozele in sensul de a avea o iarna cu macar un viscol notabil si zapada, nu o iarna uscata si urata, care chiar ar lua farmecul la tot, si al craciunului si al anului nou .Mi-as dori o iarna ca cea din 2009-2010, sau una ca cea din 2005(sper sa nu gresesc anul, daca il gresesc va rog sa ma corecta-ti) cand tin minte ca de craciun a tras un viscol de nu stiam ce e cu mine cand m-am trezit a doua zi, cu multa zapada.Si intradevar in Romanica cand vremea se pune pe lenevit leneveste mult si bine,dar sper ca dupa cam 4 luni de lenevit, exceptand mini ploaia din luna octombrie de la inceput, sa isi mai revina si ea la normal

In 2005-2006 a fost o singura ninsoare si aia cu viscol pe 28 februarie si atat. Lenevirea vremii dureaza de la 6 la 18 luni la noi.

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A venit Ursula, zeita din UE, sa-si primeasca rima.

e vorba de viscolul "de Craciun" din 2003

O prognoza a unuia dintre "guru" de pe theweatheroutlook.com, numitul Gavin P. Se refera in primul rand la UK, dar are descriere sinoptica:

Winter 2011/2012 Forecast

This forecast is based on the following points:

1. Extended, weak solar activity and still below normal, but increasing sunspot activity.

2. Weak La Nina persisting into the middle of winter, before fading back towards neutral by spring.

3. Cold PDO/Warm AMO combination similar to 1950's (this is a wild card because it looks like the AMO is becoming neutral or cold, which tends to favour troughiness over us, particularly when combined with La Nina)

4. October rainfall coming out at 94% of the average for England and Wales.

5. Active hurricane season.

6. Above average, but rather late snow cover across Siberia.

Most of the pointers I look at to compile a winter forecast are telling me the winter of 2011/2012 should be colder than average.

It would be very unusual to get a fourth colder than average winter on the bounce, however, I cannot ignore my methodology. So this forecast is going to predict a colder than average winter.

I'm thinking at least two of the three winter months will be colder than average.



DECEMBER:



I'm expecting December to be rather disturbed in the first half of the month, with quite deep areas of low pressure moving into the country producing wind storms,heavy rain and possibly snow. We should see big temperature variations during this period

Sometime around mid December I think we'll get a spell of high pressure, initially producing a mild, dry spell, but tending to become colder as the high becomes located over the country.

Christmas itself could be dry, cold and frosty with very little if any snow lying.

Between Christmas and New Year I expect a cold snap to develop, probably from the north, with wintry weather for many.


CET Temperature 0.5c above normal. Precipitation 100% of the average.



JANUARY

January might see cold and mild weather waxing and waning, but as we go into the later part of the month the emphasis will increasingly shift towards cold.

The New Year period should be cold and wintry, but then I'd expect a thaw as the weather becomes more Atlantic dominated for a time.

Mid month onwards we're at risk of increasingly cold and snowy conditions, though milder Atlantic air should push in for a time, once again.

The end of the month may turn very cold as a big area of high pressure develops over Scandinavia and brings winds around the east.



Temperature 1.0c below average. Precipitation 100% of the average.



FEBRUARY

February looks potentially the coldest month of the winter with high pressure dominating over Scandinavia and possibly Greenland also. The NAO/AO may go extremely negative, locking us into a prolonged and very cold spell of weather.

The first half of February may be the sevierest spell of the winter, with maxima staying around freezing all day and lots of snow and severe frosts as well.

The second half of the month should find low pressure attacking from the south-west as the blocking highs slowly lose their influence. So gradually it should turn milder with snow turning more to rain, though this could be a pretty slow process.

I think we end the month on a milder and unsettled note with snow confined to upland northern regions.

*I think there is a small, but not insignificant risk of February being a severe month on a par with Februaries of 1956 and 1986. At this stage I would rate this chance as around 25%. What goes against that risk is that I think the Atlantic will be attacking from time to time later in the month. This increases the risk of snow, but perversely also stops the cold from becoming too severe for an extended period.*


Temperature 2.0c below average. Precipitation 100% of the average.

Daca asta estimeaza o iarna destul de aspra la ei e clar ca la noi va fi si mai si, rece dar slaba in precipitatii.
Pomeneste de aniticicloane la greu iar pt noi anticiclon inseamna frig, presiune ridicata si precipitatii din parti.
Deci si prin urmare daca prognoza lui se adevereste ne asteapta o iarna severa, mai rece decat e normal insa la precipitatii am dubii, la ei sunt posibile precipitatii abundente insa la noi mai greu, daca bazinul superior al Mediteranei nu produce cicloane suntem un aer.

Nu e deloc rea prognoza. Practic scoate toata circulatia pe care a avut-o Europa in ultimele luni si o inlocuieste cu "actiune" de toate felurile.

Mai mult, deja consacratul tipar cu circulatie Atlantica pare ca se va sparge de Mos Niculae.

Sorry guys, dar mie mi se pare ca tipul ala seamana cu Bastardi - ii place sa se auda cum vorbeste. Hai sa fim seriosi, cum a avut tupeul sa intre asa in detalii, mie mi-ar fi rusine...sa arate o tendinta a iernii era ok, dar sa defalcheze pe luni e penibil.

Ati vazut prognoza de pe site-ul ANM pentru dec-feb? E cea mai tare de pana acum.

La procentul de reusita al ultimelor 3 luni ce naiba sa mai zica si ei.Ma mir ca le mai posteaza...

Iti zic eu atunci pe scurt ce au prognozat: normal-normal-normal.

Nu vad nimic care ar iesi din tiparul ANM-ului - in afara de faptul ca spun ca in decembrie precipitatiile vor fi peste medie in sud. Poate cel mai tare e ca, inca, in ciuda tendintei evidente de seceta, apreciaza ca precipitatiile se vor incadra in normal pe toata perioada iernii

Ei spun ca vor fi sub medie in sud...nu peste!