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SONCA e acum taifun, insa parese ca evita Japonia.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... wp1911.gif

la petropavlovsk ajunge ceva vreodata ?

Tropical nu.Ce ajunge e exact ce ajunge in Marea Britanie din Atlantic.Adica extratropical.Insa e o zona de locuit acolo pt iubitorii viscolelor masive si caderilor abundente de zapada.Iarna de iarna zapada atinge cativa m in regiune si viscolele paralizeaza zile bune activitatile...

m-ai facut curios...

Roke se asteapta sa loveasca Japonia ca un taifun de cat 1, acum desi e cat 2 are un ochi excelent definit:



As zice ca e posibila o upgradare la cat 3 in scurt timp.

Mama da ce tare s-a intensificat.A cam luat prin surprindere pe toata lumea.Deja JMA il da ca taifun moderat cu o presiune la centru de 940mb, iar pe scara SS la cum arata eu l-as cota la categoria 4-a.In urma cu o zi era prognozata o intensitate maxima de 70kt si 970mb.35mb adancire in 24 ore, neprognozata de niciun model, asta e frumos la tropice .Nu-i rau, si la ce traiectorie e prognozata se pare ca are toate sansele sa loveasca in plin si la intensitate maxima chiar capitala Tokyo.Si aici e de cautat prin statistici de cand un taifun n-a mai lovit direct capitala, si un taifun serios inca....

nu ar fi deloc de dorit sa ajunga in insula !!!!!

Mie imi place zig-zag-ul ochiului din imaginea satelitara. Nu cred insa ca Japonia va fi lovita de un taifun semnificativ, maxim cat2, si la asa ceva japonezii n-au nici o problema.

off topic scurt: cum se foloseste butonul url si img ? eu unul nu am reusit pana acum nimic.

Pentru a nu polua, am explicat aici: viewtopic.php?p=60699#p60699

e gata si cu Roke...

Roke a murit, traiasca NESAT
At 01:10UTC Japonezii au upgradat TD to TS .

TS 1117 (NESAT)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 24 September 2011
<Analyses at 24/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°00'(14.0°)
E136°25'(136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)

TS nu pare cine stie ce... o furtuna mai serioasa... dar tinand cont de zona...
Este ceva mai interesant in Pacificul de est, tanti Hilary isi face de cap aproape de mexicani...
http://www.hurricanezone.net/#09e

Imi amintesc de tipul asta Avila, e cel mai nostim cand citesti prognozele lui...

Hurricane HILARY Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240240
TCDEP4

HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
SPECTACULAR ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE
DATA. IT IS SMALL BUT VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED
BY VERY STRONG CONVECTION. ALL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELD
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY GOOD
PREVAILING ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...HILARY COULD STILL
GAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN IF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES OCCUR AND RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY...HILARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE
FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE...AND HILARY SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.

TRACKING THE EYE ON SATELLITE GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
NORMALLY VERY STEADY...AND THIS TIME IS NO DIFFERENT. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE HILARY ON A
GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL REACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTHWARD BUT
VERY SLOWLY. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY
WHEN THE STEERING IS WELL ESTABLISHED. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE
BECOMES REALLY DIVERGENT...BUT THE GENERAL TUNE IS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GAIN LATITUDE OR TO RECURVE. IT COULD BE AN
INTERESTING BUT DIFFICULT FORECAST BEYOND FIVE DAYS. I AM GLAD I DO
NOT HAVE TO MAKE IT AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.7N 104.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.9N 105.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.3N 107.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.8N 110.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 18.0N 113.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 19.5N 115.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

E unul dintre cei mai priceputi, din cate prognoze am vazut de-a lungul timpului.A mai fost un tip nu mai retin cum il cheama dar s-a retras acum 4-5 ani.Nesat promite a fi o lovitura serioasa pt Filipine.Imi amintesc in 2006 cand arhipelagul a fost devastat de 4 cicloane formate toate in aceeasi zona cu Nesat, si care au devenit de categoria 4-a sau a 5-a pe scara SS.Au facut prapad in FIlipine.A fost o perioada de cosmar atunci.Daca intereseaza pe cineva pot sa pun niste poze cu ciclonii aceia absolut perfecti la intensitatea lor maxima....