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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Joi Ian 26, 2012 9:15 am 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
TC IGGY...west AU

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0332 UTC 26/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 108.8E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [125 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 45 nm [85 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1200: 16.9S 109.6E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 984
+24: 27/0000: 17.9S 110.4E: 115 [215]: 055 [100]: 978
+36: 27/1200: 18.8S 111.0E: 145 [270]: 065 [120]: 967
+48: 28/0000: 19.6S 111.7E: 185 [345]: 075 [140]: 958
+60: 28/1200: 20.3S 112.5E: 230 [430]: 085 [155]: 949
+72: 29/0000: 20.7S 113.1E: 280 [520]: 090 [165]: 943
REMARKS:
VIS imagery shows the LLCC on the eastern edge of the CDO. CIMSS shear analysis
indicates around 20 knots of easterly shear consistent with the indications from
VIS imagery. Shear pattern gives DT 3.0 with the LLCC not sufficiently
underneath the CDO to yield 3.5. ADT is at 2.7.

Final intensity is set at 40 knots though it is likely that winds on the eastern
side are weaker at present. Overnight the system has begun to move SE'ly as
expected. The ridge to the south is very weak and steering is dominated by the
monsoon flow to the north over the next 72 hours, bringing the system SE towards
the coast. Models indicate SSE or SE movement maintained for around 48 hours
before sufficient ridging develops to the south to steer the system to the west.
Not all models develop sufficient ridging to the alter the course, with some
models maintaining a SE course bringing it across the Pilbara coast.

All available intensity guidance indicates the system will steadily intensify
over the next 3 days and this is consistent with an analysis of the synoptic
conditions. If the system maintains a more SE'ly track it will track over warmer
SSTs. A more southerly track will bring it into an area of shallower warm water
near 20S and may limit intensity due to upwelling of colder water if the system
is slow moving. Shear remains low to moderate over the period and favourable
interaction with an upper trough is possible over the weekend.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Sâm Ian 28, 2012 11:29 am 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
DW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0711 UTC 28/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.2S
Longitude: 110.8E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/1800: 20.7S 111.1E: 045 [085]: 065 [120]: 964
+24: 29/0600: 21.0S 111.6E: 065 [120]: 075 [140]: 955
+36: 29/1800: 21.4S 111.9E: 095 [175]: 085 [155]: 946
+48: 30/0600: 21.8S 111.8E: 125 [230]: 085 [155]: 945
+60: 30/1800: 22.5S 111.5E: 155 [285]: 080 [150]: 951
+72: 31/0600: 23.6S 110.9E: 185 [345]: 075 [140]: 955
REMARKS:
TC Iggy has taken more of a southerly track in the past 12 hours and recent
visible images indicate deep convection consolidating near the low level
circulation centre. This is consistent with the northeasterly vertical wind
shear decreasing to 10-15 knots. Intensity of 50 knots based on curved band
pattern of 0.8 wrap giving DT=3.5; adjusted MET agrees. This is also consistent
with SATCON estimates of 59kn [1minute mean].

Despite its recent southerly motion, most models suggest some southeast motion
for the next 12-18 hours under the influence of deep NW'lies. During Sunday the
system should experience very weak steering flow so a slow southerly track is
predicted. It now appears likely that Iggy will remain over open waters off the
NW Cape on Sunday and Monday and not make landfall. By Monday it should take a
more definite south or southwest path off the upper west coast.

Further intensification appears likely in the next 24-48 hours under the
influence of lighter wind shear. The system's slow motion may stir up the ocean
sufficiently to reduce the SST and weaken as a result. Gradual weakening should
occur in subsequent days over cooler waters.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.


Sus
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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Sâm Ian 28, 2012 11:30 am 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
IGGY se pare ca va fi cat 4 inainte de landfall in West Australia


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Dum Ian 29, 2012 6:48 am 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
la numai o zi cei din Perth anunta ca va ramane pe ocean ...cat 3.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Lun Feb 06, 2012 3:48 am 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
Un alt cyclone, Jamine, max sustained winds 55kt , nici un pericol pentru OZ se deplaseaza catre E.

IDQ20068
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1855 UTC 05/02/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.8S
Longitude: 156.5E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards:east [082 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 06/0600: 16.8S 158.7E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 975
+24: 06/1800: 17.0S 160.9E: 120 [220]: 065 [120]: 972
+36: 07/0600: 17.3S 163.1E: 150 [280]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 07/1800: 17.6S 165.4E: 185 [345]: 070 [130]: 968
+60: 08/0600: 18.4S 167.5E: 230 [430]: 070 [130]: 965
+72: 08/1800: 19.7S 169.0E: 280 [520]: 065 [120]: 968
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone centre position based on 1732UTC MTSAT IR and 1437UTC AMSUB
85GHz imagery. Position poor.

Intensity based on Dvorak embedded centre with embedded distance of 0.5 degrees
though with CDG cloud top temperatures. 1400UTC SATCON agrees with 63kt [one
minute] mean winds.

Deep convection generally to the north and west of LLCC with moderate E'ly shear
of around 15 knots. Strong upper divergence in all quadrants over the past 6
hours despite this shear.

Global models are consistent with E'ly forecast path and further development
over the next 48 hours.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Vin Mar 02, 2012 6:35 pm 
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-40 °C
-40 °C
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Membru din: Dum Feb 17, 2008 1:00 pm
Mesaje: 13458
Localitate: Tg-Mures
Ati somat de o luna de zile.Practic luna februarie s-a incheiat cu un singur ciclon format in intreg Pacificul de Sud, precum si in zona Australiei a Oceanului Indian.Ciclonul tropical Jasmine s-a format fix pe 1 februarie, iar dupa 3 zile s-a mutat in zona Fiji.Februarie e echivalentul lunii august pt emisfera nordica, adica o luna activa.Imi aduc aminte ca acum 2 ani, cand ati avut cred cel mai inactiv sezon din ultimii multi ani, situatia a fost asemenatoare.Vreo explicatie?


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Mie Mar 07, 2012 6:01 pm 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
Ar fi multe explicatii, El Nina a fost slabuta anul asta, acum intra chiar in neutral phase (ENSO), de asemeni, MJO de o luna e in partea cealalta a globului si a stat cred ca mai bine de 2 saptamani in phase 2, celelalte "tropical waves", Rossby si Kelvin au fost si ele "touch and go", "surge"-ul din emisfera nordica a fost slab ( sub 20Kt winds), deci monsoonul nu a fost activ aproape deloc.... insa MJO acum este iar in phase 4, in zona Australiei, si probabil un nou ciclon se va forma....soon, noi speram sa fie in Indian Ocean si sa le dea de lucru la cei din West Australia.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Mie Mar 07, 2012 6:03 pm 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
ENSO acum si 3 luni forecast..

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Mie Mar 07, 2012 6:05 pm 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
MJO :

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graph ... 40days.gif


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Mie Mar 07, 2012 6:31 pm 
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Membru din: Lun Feb 13, 2012 6:58 am
Mesaje: 636
Localitate: Brasov
Asa ceva ?

http://www.gandul.info/magazin/galerie- ... ia-9377463


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Joi Mar 08, 2012 8:20 pm 
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Membru din: Vin Dec 05, 2008 1:00 pm
Mesaje: 32708
Localitate: Cluj-Napoca
f**k, ce horror, si scarbos. Paianjenii sunt unele din putinele chestii care ma ingrozesc...


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Joi Mar 08, 2012 8:36 pm 
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Membru din: Dum Feb 17, 2008 1:00 pm
Mesaje: 13458
Localitate: Tg-Mures
Singurul lucru care ma ingrozeste pe mine e acul.Cand il vad apropiindu-se de vreo vena sunt in cap.Mai am si o mica problema cu inaltimea :D, in rest, ce tine de categoria plante-animale, nicio problema cu nimeni.


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Lun Mar 12, 2012 7:39 am 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
Un ciclon se pregateste pentru Darwin, sa speram ca va fi cat 1 decat...


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 11:27 am CST [9:57 am WST] on Monday 12 March 2012

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands .

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
155 kilometres north northwest of Bathurst Island and
265 kilometres north northwest of Darwin and
moving west at 7 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time
to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Areas are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This
advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary
precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT Border should listen for the
next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 10.3 degrees South 129.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 7 kilometres per hour
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Monday 12 March [3:30 pm WST
Monday 12 March].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Lun Mar 12, 2012 8:43 am 
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Membru din: Joi Sep 15, 2011 4:55 am
Mesaje: 580
Localitate: Darwin-Australia
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65011.shtml


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 Subiectul mesajului: Re: Zona Australiei
MesajScris: Lun Mar 12, 2012 8:46 am 
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Membru din: Dum Feb 17, 2008 1:00 pm
Mesaje: 13458
Localitate: Tg-Mures
Sunteti chiar la marginea zonei de risc.Ceva averse sanatoase tot o sa aveti.


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