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Latest Forecast Policy- Northern Territory .

IDD10100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Synoptic Situation
Issued at 2:35 pm CST on Wednesday 21 September 2011

Current Weather Summary and Future Developments:
A weak ridge of high pressure along the Australian east coast is directing a
humid northeast to northwest flow over northern parts of the Territory,
resulting in isolated showers about the northern Top End. In the south, as a
trough approaches from WA and slips to the south the winds will tend northerly
for a day or so before returning to the east or northeast over the weekend.
Another, more major trough will approach the southwest early next week.

Forecast Discussion
Short term...
Some dry air will get into the central parts of the Top End confining any
showers to coastal regions with the added trigger of seabreeze convergence. Fog
patches still occurring over the west and Gulf coasts wherever moisture is
shallower, sea fog also forming in the gulfs. The southeast surge that's moved
through central and southern parts of the Territory has almost fizzled out near
the base of the Top End but may still be a little windy in the southern Gulf in
the morning.

Major smoke problems in the Alice Springs District with about 30% of the Simpson
Desert having burnt in the last week. Also fires near Rabbit Flat and Giles [and
probably upwind of Kintore] causing aviation problems. Winds in the south will
tend northeast through to northwest as a trough slips to the south. Winds will
quickly turn back to the east/northeast [through south] for Friday.

Long Term...
In the south, winds will tend northeast over the weekend and freshen with fresh
to strong and gusty north to northwest winds developing from Monday as the next
trough approaches. This gradually moves east with a change going through Yulara
late Tuesday and Alice on Wednesday. Andrew Turner has already been given a
heads up. This will be a more significant trough with the possibility of rain
and storms, particularly as there is a long northerly trajectory on the winds.

Little change in the north with humidity gradually increasing from the weekend
but shower will still be hit and miss. Low cloud will continue to be an issue
around the usual areas.

Darwin 4 Day Forecast...
Humid, light winds and early sea breezes. Generally partly cloudy with the
chance of showers, mainly inland in the afternoon. Drying out a little on Thurs
as the flow turns more southeasterly inland [tail end of the surge], but with
the air "drier" it will result in warmer temps.

Cum ai defini termenul "surge" in contextul dat? e un concept nou pentru mine...

A nu se confunda cu storm surge de la tropical cyclones. In cazul de fata, surge sau southeast dry surge, inseamna o advectie puternica de aer rece si uscat pe flancul sud estic al unui anticiclon ( sau in cazul de fata dorsala) care se deplaseaza deasupra Great Bight-ului Australian pana in Tasman Sea ) in cazul de fata se extinde de-a lungul Queensland). Se poate observa pe vis satellite si rezulta in indici exceptionali de mari in Frire weather. Ca idee, un astfel de dry surge a produs catastrofic fire weather danger ( valori >100). Dupa cum vezi si acum dry surge-ul asta, care nu a fost asa de puternic devreme ce anticiclonul se afla in SE Australiei si este relativ slab, 1024HPa, a generat fires si implicit probleme aviatiei.

analogia cu noi ar fi intensificarile de vant (post-frontale) de pe partea posterioara a unui talveg (partea anterioara, de NE, a dorsalei subsecvente), in care advectia rece se combina cu adv de vorticitate negativa pentru a genera miscari descendente importante, de unde cresteri de presiune si o componenta izalobarica ce intensifica vantul de gradient...un fel de "surge" poate fi considerata si patrunderea pericarpatica a aerului continental polar in situatiile de patrundere anticiclonica la N si NE de Romania...

Asa e, singura observatie, nu e nevoie neparat de un cold front, e de-ajuns un talveg in relieful baric, si cum in queensland din cauza dif termice ocean-uscat si relief, cam in permanenta exista un " trough" pre dorsal...care produce "tightening-u"l gradientului de presiune ( dif de presiune intre 2 puncte) aici in Top End si aceste valori ne poate spune si cat de puternic si "deep" este surge-ul. Diferenta de ro, desigur, nu e vorba de aer polar...

IDD10100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Synoptic Situation
Issued at 6:00 am CST on Saturday 24 September 2011

Current Weather Summary and Future Developments:
A weak ridge of high pressure along the Australian east coast is directing a
humid northeast to northwest flow over northern parts of the Territory,
resulting in isolated showers about the north and west coasts. In the south, a
weak cloud band will move through today before redeveloping in the southwest.
Winds will tend east to northeast and begin to freshen from tomorrow as a
significant trough approaches the southwest late in the weekend.

Forecast Discussion
Short term...
Some dry air aloft will mix to the surface in central parts of the Top End
confining any showers to coastal regions with the added trigger of seabreeze
convergence. Fog patches still occurring over the west and Gulf coasts wherever
moisture is shallower with good areas around the southern Gulf coast. Early
morning showers about the northwest coast likely to continue with local
convergence as the trigger.

Major smoke problems in the Alice Springs District with fires over many areas
within the District and across the border in WA. Winds will be moderate
east/northeasterly as a trough slips to the south. Today will be the calm before
the storm.

Long Term...
In the south, winds will tend northeasterly over the weekend and become fresh to
strong and gusty north to northwest winds from Monday as the next trough
approaches. The fresh to strong winds gradually extend east with a cooler change
going through Yulara "during" Wednesday and that night at Alice. Bushfires NT
have already been given a heads up. Mixing down will play a significant part and
while the really, really strong winds will be in the morning, the trough will
appear to retrogress during the afternoon as the winds from aloft mix down.
Windiest days will be Tuesday to Wednesday, not that it wont be windy on Monday
and Thursday. Temperatures drop significantly with the change but may not be
enough to stop the mixing back during the afternoon. Consideration may need to
be given to Severe Weather Warnings [Land Gale/Damaging wind gusts]/Fire Weather
Warnings and will need to be for aviation warnings [including blowing dust].
This next trough will be a more significant trough with the possibility of rain
and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Little change in the north with humidity gradually increasing from the weekend
but showers will still be hit and miss. Low cloud will continue to be an issue
around the usual areas.

Darwin 4 Day Forecast...
Humid, light winds and early seabreezes. Generally partly cloudy with just a
slight chance of afternoon showers, mainly inland. Early morning showers are
also a possibility.

Synoptic Situation
Issued at 2:35 pm CST on Tuesday 4 October 2011

Current Weather Summary and Future Developments:
A ridge of high pressure over the Qld coast is moving east as a trough moves
into central Australia. Showers and gusty storms with areas of rain in the Alice
Springs and Victoria River Districts today, contracting north and east tonight
and Wednesday as the trough moves northeast across the Territory. Isolated
showers and one or two storms will continue about the north and west coasts,
becoming widespread across the Top End as the trough approaches from the south
during the week. A weak and short lived southerly change follows in the wake of
the trough in the south, quickly turning warmer easterly in response to another
trough developing over WA later in the week.

Forecast Discussion
Short term...
In the south, the trough is approaching the far SW corner resulting in
increasing shower and storm activity with areas of rain across the ASD and VRD.
Falls of 15-25mm are likely across western and central parts of the ASD.
Moderate to fresh N/NW winds ahead of the trough, tending westerly in the west.
Low level turbulence expected in the south. Possible damaging wind gusts with
storms. The trough moves across the ASD tonight, to be located north of Tennant
Creek late on Wed where it is expected to stagnate. Showers and gusty storms
with areas of rain will contract east and north tonight, clearing the ASD by
late Wednesday night as the thermal trough levels off. A weak southerly change
follows in the wake of the trough tomorrow as a weak high moves east across the
Bight.

In the north, generally becoming more humid with weak gulf lines affecting the E
coast. Expect mainly fine conditions in the north apart from isolated afternoon
showers and one or two storms about the north and west coasts, developing
further inland tomorrow as the trough from the south approaches. Early morning
fog patches and low cloud possible again across the Top End and Gulf Country.

Long Term...
Winds quickly turn warmer E/NE as a trough redevelops over WA and the next
thermal trough sharpens to the west on Friday, spreading some mid level cloud
over the southern half. The trough to the north of YTNK links with the new heat
trough to the west and gradually shifts southwards on Fri/Sat.

In the north, becoming more humid and unstable from Wed as the trough approaches
from the south, causing isolated showers to become more widespread over the
northern half of the Territory. Low cloud/fog will probably ease off later as
moisture increases.

Darwin 4 Day Forecast...
Mostly sunny today. Increasing humidity from mid week will lead to an increased
chance of a shower about.

Ce-mi plac inversiunile astea lingvistice. Din cate am observat cei ce le utilizeaza folosesc si un limbaj elevat si corect...la average joe-i n-am vazut asa ceva.

australian english....lasand la o parte G'day-ul, roo ( kangaroo), sanger ( sandwich), shit house or restroom (toilet)si mate-ul de la tara, este cea mai apropiata de UK english...

Shit House. Mie imi place mai mult cum suna engleza americana, cea originala nu a cowboy-ilor sau a negrilor (yo, desi nici aia nu suna rau). Britanicii au un accent mai din topor asa, nemuzical.

sincer cea afroamericana suna ciudat la inceput, nu prea intelegi ce zic, caci folosesc mult slang language...(bro,) dar si multe injuraturi, cam ce vezi in filme( insa pe alea le intelegi usor) dar ei afroamericanii sunt cei mai prietenosi, ca si aborigenii de aici, daca le dai o bere sunt fratii tai....

Mie imi pare ca negrii aia pun mult suflet in orice, mai mult decat albii, sunt foarte patimasi asa, si cu cele mai multe exclamatii de shit, Jesus, damn, fuck.

Vreau sa avem si noi un astfel de ciclon iarna.

Northern Territory Forecast Policy Monday, Oct 10

IDD10100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Synoptic Situation
Issued at 6:00 am CST on Monday 10 October 2011

Current Weather Summary and Future Developments:
A weak ridge of high pressure over north Qld is directing a northeast to
northwest flow over the Territory with isolated showers and storms over the
western Top End and adjacent parts. Isolated showers developing in the south
ahead of the trough as it moves north through the Alice Springs District today.
Slightly cooler southerly winds follow the trough. Winds quickly turn northerly
along the western border on Tuesday as a new trough forms over WA and isolated
showers and storms develop in the southwest. Showers and storms are expected to
extend to most parts by mid week as the trough moves slowly eastwards.

Forecast Discussion
Short term...
In the north, little change expected except for slight drying in the east.
Expect isolated showers and storms in the west, mainly in the afternoon/evening.
Isol morning fog and mist about the north and east coast and valleys.

In the south, the trough will pass through Alice Springs in the early this
morning followed by a slightly cooler southerly change. The trough moves further
north later in the day reaching Tennant Creek in the late evening. Isolated
showers expected north of the trough during the day. A small chance of these
showers developing into storms over the Barkly and VRD Districts in the evening.
Remaining fine and mostly sunny south of the trough. Humidity slightly higher
than yesterday so Fire Dangers expected to be decrease to Very High today,
despite the strong and gusty NW winds ahead of the trough.

Long Term...
In the north, generally more humid and unstable with isolated showers and storms
extending across most districts on Wednesday as the next trough pushes east. Low
cloud/fog expected to ease off as moisture increases.

The trough weakens out just north of Tennant Creek on Tuesday, whilst another
trough develops near the western border. The southerly change in the south will
be short lived as winds quickly turn NE/NW'ly by mid week. Isolated
showers/storms develop in the southwest from late Tuesday and extend throughout
the ASD and central districts on Wed/Thur as the trough moves east. Clearing is
expected in the southwest from Thursday as the next ridge pushes in.

Darwin 4 Day Forecast...
Moist and unstable conditions will continue with the seabreeze the main trigger
for afternoon storms. So for the next few days we can expect a chance of a
shower or storm, but mainly inland in the afternoon.

Ieri a fost prima zi cand s-a inregistrat OVC in Darwin din ......14 Aprilie.