Partners

Sorin, cei de la BOM au tras mult de "date" ca sa-si acopere avertizarile, cei de JTWC au fost mai aproape de adevar....Intr-un fel e de inteles , cand ciclonul iti bate la usa inclini mai mult pe partea "politic forecast" , iar atunci cand esti departe esti mult mai obiectiv. Nu a fost cine stie ce ca vint insa ca precipitatii.....a inundat Kakadu complet, a "rupt" Top End de restul NT feroviar si road... Stuart Highway a fost "washed out"....Gove a intrecut recordul pe decembrie si inca ploua tare, pana acum 467,6 mm ... Aici in Darwin insa vant zero , precipitatii mai nimic.

Ex -Grant se va deplasa din nou peste ocean ,,,in Golful Carpentaria, o intensificare spre TC e din nou posibila pe maine insa va fi de scurta durata....

Sa stii ca pe romani ii credeam in stare de asta, dar pe altii nu.S-a si intamplat ca anm-ul sa faca o falsificare grosolana de date, acum 2 ani parca, pt ca ei nu au dat avertizare, si intr-o zona din Bacau au cazut peste 100mm si au fost inundatii, dar au ascuns acele cifre.Mai pe intelesul meu, daca anm-ul nostru da avertizare de ger sub -20 de grade, dar nu sunt numai -19, ei pot spune ca au fost -23 intr-o ferma de langa Ciuc, doar ca sa aiba acoperire avertizarea.Eu am crezut ca vreun buoy din acela plutitor sau cineva de langa tarm chiar a masurat acea presiune de 978mb, iar conditiile locale sa fi fost cumva atipice.Chiar nu m-am gandit la varianta asta.Daca e asa cum zici tu intr-adevar, pot fi intelesi pe de-o parte, desi eu nu inteleg astfel de idei, insa in post-analysis ar trebui rectificate datele, pt valoarea stiintifica totusi.

ce zice brani mi se pare OK - sa dai ciclonul mai puternic decat este atunci cand ameninta zonele populate; la ANM in schimb e invers...

anemisti sunt si cei de la antipozi, nu ai ce sa faci...asta e...masluirea meteorologiei se practica la nivel foarte inalt, nu va tot mirati...un ciclon masluit e fix pix la urma urmei...miza cea mare e cu incalzirea globala...
vorba lui eugenraduoradea, mai nou prieten de rds cu neaceasca : anemistii sunt la fel peste tot

quote of the week

eugenraduoradea si Nea Ceasca- colegi de suferinta intru ne GPON-izarea caselor multumita angajatilor foarte competenti ai colosului condus de Zoly Teszari. La Eugen e un ghinion cu basculanta mai mare decat la mine, cum dracu in orasul sefului pe o strada cu stalpi sa nu-i bage GPON? Simplu, Erdeesh, iti vine sa-ti bagi...

_________________
A venit Ursula, zeita din UE, sa-si primeasca rima.

asta e un dezavantaj pt cei ce stau ca voi in viloaie si se lafaie ca boss-ii

Sa stii ca pe romani ii credeam in stare de asta, dar pe altii nu.S-a si intamplat ca anm-ul sa faca o falsificare grosolana de date, acum 2 ani parca, pt ca ei nu au dat avertizare, si intr-o zona din Bacau au cazut peste 100mm si au fost inundatii, dar au ascuns acele cifre.Mai pe intelesul meu, daca anm-ul nostru da avertizare de ger sub -20 de grade, dar nu sunt numai -19, ei pot spune ca au fost -23 intr-o ferma de langa Ciuc, doar ca sa aiba acoperire avertizarea.Eu am crezut ca vreun buoy din acela plutitor sau cineva de langa tarm chiar a masurat acea presiune de 978mb, iar conditiile locale sa fi fost cumva atipice.Chiar nu m-am gandit la varianta asta.Daca e asa cum zici tu intr-adevar, pot fi intelesi pe de-o parte, desi eu nu inteleg astfel de idei, insa in post-analysis ar trebui rectificate datele, pt valoarea stiintifica totusi.[/quote]

Sorin, Canada si US au o "relativ" mare retea de date offshore de ex buoys, poate si vapoare care se incumeta sa navigheze printr-un developping TC... Australia imi da senzatia ca e mult mai saraca din punctul asta de vedere, buoys aici in Arafura si Timor sea= zero, vase in afara de alea pline cu indonezieni -emigranti clandestini = tot zero rezulta lipsa de rapoarte meteo "live"; iar daca nu ai norocul de un good scatterometer wind pass si mai esti si pe timp de noapte unde folosesti doar IR si microwave image, si unde (la tropice) modelele sucks ai deja motivul pentru care BOM merge mai mult pe latura "up forecast". Sunt si alte aspecte meteo, TC aici se formeaza de regula in monsoon trough, si poti avea max winds de ex 20-25kt in TC dar 35 gales in monsoon. O alta "scuza" ar fi ca unui TC in apele Australiene cu T de peste 30-32C nu ii trebuie prea mult sa se intensifice tare.

Ex TC Grant current track:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65011.shtml

Primul ciclon din 2012 din aceasta regiune a lovit azi coasta de vest, zona Port Hedland.Denumit Heidi, ciclonul s-a intensificat pana la o viteza medie a vantului de 60kt si o presiune estimata la 975mb, acestea fiind datele oficiale a celor de la BOM.De data asta as tinde sa merg pe mana lor.Ciclonul a si avut o manifestare atipica, intalnita de mine pana acum doar o singura data in Atlantic.Dupa ce a ajuns cu centrul pe uscat, Heidi s-a intensificat brusc si chiar a aparut un ochi pe imaginile satelitare.Este ceva de incalca toate regulile care spun ca in momentul cand un ciclon tropical intalneste uscatul, iar alimentarea cu energia apelor calde este sistata, acesta scade repede in intensitate si se disipeaza.Contrar acestor reguli, pt a 2-a oara in ultimii ani vad un ciclon care dupa ce ajunge pe uscat se intensifica si isi formeaza un ochi la zeci de km in interiorul uscatului.Una dintre explicatiile pe care le-am auzit ar fi ca astfel de fenomene se intampla atunci cand un ciclon inainteaza pe uscat pe o zona perfect plata, la nivelul marii astfel acesta se poate inca intensifica chiar daca nu mai este deasupra apei.Oricum fenomenul cred ca este putin inteles deocamdata, pt ca explicatii clare n-am auzit, doar supozitii.Iata si imagini satelitare:

Asa arata ciclonul ieri:



Asa arata azi cand a ajuns pe uscat:



Si asa arata dupa cateva ore petrecute pe uscat, cu ochiul care e bine definit chiar si pe infrarosu

Talking Points
Tropical Cyclone Heidi 11th Jan 2012

Messages
TC Heidi (the second Tropical Cyclone of the season for the WA region) is moving towards the Pilbara coast and slowly intensifying

Heidi could bring winds gusting to 155km/hr close to its centre as it crosses the coast overnight, as well as heavy rain and a dangerous storm tide.


Talking Points

The Bureau is closely monitoring Tropical Cyclone Heidi off the Pilbara coast.
• At 1100 WST 11/1/12 TC Heidi a category 1 cyclone was located approximately 185km North North East of Port Hedland
• It was moving in a southerly direction at 15km/hr towards the Pilbara coast
• Latest computer model guidance suggests it will continue on this track for the next 24 hours
• TC Heidi is expected to intensify as it moves southwards and it may become a Category 2 Cyclone this evening.
• It is expected to cross the coast as a Category 2 Cyclone close to Port Hedland overnight.
• The strongest winds and heaviest rainfalls associated with Heidi are likely to be in its southern and eastern sectors.
• Karijini National Park has been closed due to flooding.
• Further cumulative falls of 100 – 250mm or more are expected over the next 2-3 days.
• Heidi is the second cyclone of the season for the WA region, but is the first to affect the mainland
• It is the first TC to affect Port Hedland since severe TC George in 2007.

For updates please go to http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

Talking Points 9am Issue
Tropical Cyclone Heidi 12th Jan 2012

Messages
TC Heidi (the second Tropical Cyclone of the season for the WA region but the first to impact the mainland) crossed the coast 10km east of Port Hedland at about 4.30am this morning as a Category 2 cyclone.

Even though it is weakening, the remnants of Heidi will pose a considerable risk to the Pilbara region due to the heavy rains associated with it.

Talking Points

The Bureau is closely monitoring Tropical Cyclone Heidi as it moves southwards away from Port Hedland and steadily weakens

• At approximately 4.30am WST 12/1/12 TC Heidi made landfall 10km east of Port Hedland as a Category 2 Cyclone.
• Port Hedland airport reported wind gusts of 131 km/hr at 4am, with rainfall of 128mm to 9am this morning.
• The heaviest rainfall associated with Heidi has been reported to the south and east of the centre, with the heaviest fall so far recorded being 166mm at Wallal Downs.
• At 9am TC Heidi was 55 km south of Port Hedland, was moving south southwest at 12km/hr and had been downgraded to a Category 1 Cyclone.
• Even though it is now weakening it is still possible that winds with gusts to 120km/hr could occur close to the cyclone centre over the few hours.
• It is expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall with falls of 100-250mm possible.
• Flood warnings are current for the De Grey and Pilbara coastal rivers.
• The remnants of Heidi are likely to produce further heavy falls of rain through the eastern Gascoyne and Goldfields over the next couple of days.
• The moisture associated with the remnants may also produce showers on Friday and a possible Thunderstorm on Saturday for Perth.
• The moisture will also make conditions in Perth more humid over the next couple of days.
• Heidi is the second cyclone of the season for the WA region, but is the first to affect the mainland
• The average number of cyclones that affect NW WA is 5, and there is an expectation that we will see an above average number of cyclones this season.
• Heidi is the first TC to affect Port Hedland since severe TC George in 2007.

For updates please go to http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

Cele mai ridicate SST din lume in momentul de fata in N Australiei...

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDY00008.shtml

Tropical Cyclone Outlook... Northern Territory

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:15 pm CST Saturday 21 January 2012

Valid until the end of Tuesday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is becoming more active over the Timor and Arafura Seas and
will move slowly south over the weekend. A weak low pressure system has formed
in the northwest Gulf of Carpentaria, along the trough, and is expected to move
west towards the Timor Sea over the next few days and may develop further.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Sunday: Very Low.
Monday: Low.
Tuesday: Moderate.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor [northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E].

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone



DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centr